Study of the impact of climate change on tourism activities using remote sensing in the Carpathian region

Abstract

Climate change is having a significant impact on the tourism and recreational potential of the Ukrainian Carpathians, particularly in mountainous regions that rely on winter sports, hiking and ecotourism. Rising temperatures, decreasing snow cover and changing precipitation patterns threaten the viability of ski resorts and winter tourism. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on tourism development in the Carpathians through remote sensing, GIS modelling and analysis of long-term climate data. The research is based on a comparative analysis of historical climate trends, satellite imagery and mathematical modelling of temperature and precipitation dynamics. Using Google Earth Engine and remote sensing techniques, key indicators such as snow cover area, albedo index and normalised difference snow index (NDSI) were analysed to assess changes in seasonal conditions. The results show a significant decrease in snow depth (approximately 4.4 mm per year) and snow-covered area (0.21% per year). The data indicate a shift in seasonality, a shortening of the winter season and an increase in climate-related risks to tourism infrastructure. Despite the negative impacts on winter tourism, climate change may increase opportunities for summer and autumn tourism, such as hiking and cycling. To mitigate these challenges, adaptation strategies need to be developed, including snowmaking technologies, diversification of tourism services, and sustainable environmental management. This study provides critical insights into the long-term dynamics of climate change in the Carpathians and supports strategic planning for sustainable tourism development.